Climate sensitivity indices and their relation with projected temperature change in CMIP6 models

Abstract Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient response (TCR) are both measures of the system to external forcing, in terms temperature CO 2 doubling. Here it is shown that, two, TCR current-generation coupled models better correlated with model projected change from pre-industrial state, not only on decadal time scales but throughout much 21st century. For strong mitigation scenarios difference persists until end Historical forcing other hand has a significant degree predictive power past evolution models, relevant magnitude their future projections. Regional analysis shows superior ECS over during latter half century areas slow warming, illustrating that although predictor warming global scale, does capture delayed regional feedbacks, or pattern effects. The at quadrupling (T140) found be mean anomaly for longer than TCR, also describes Over 20th century, there weak correlation between total ECS, contributing to, determining, agreement observed warming. aerosol correlated.